Why foresight is crucial for transformation and why tech convergence matters more than individual trends
When news feeds fill up with predictions at the beginning of the year, it becomes hard to identify the truly relevant topics amid the noise. Since ignoring new technologies is no longer an option in an ever-accelerating world, the goal here is to help German companies see the forest for the trees. Taking a step back to look at the bigger picture (and at how the world might look in 3–5 years) helps determine how transformation should be tackled today.
Looking back before looking ahead: AI acceleration is real
2025 marked the tipping point: AI transformation is no longer a vision of the future but a measurable reality. The acceleration is unprecedented:
- $400 billion Big Tech investments in data centers and AI infrastructure.
- $192.7 billion global VC investments in AI startups (50 % of total VC funding).
- 78 % of all organizations use AI in at least one function – an increase of 23 % since 2024 (Stanford HAI Report).
- $105.9 billion (60 %) of global AI investments flow into the Bay Area.
Despite high levels of investment, companies worldwide are struggling with failed pilots: According to an MIT study, 95 % of all AI projects generated no measurable value. German companies in particular find it difficult to keep pace. Rapid experimentation yields important insights, but without a view of the future, AI projects will not remain competitive in the long term.
Tech futurist Amy Webb sums it up:
“The key question in 2026 is not which single technology matters most, but which combinations matter now.”
Disruption emerges through convergence: AI merges with biology, robotics with software, energy with computing.
To understand which convergences are relevant, it is worth looking to Silicon Valley: the region concentrates the most advanced frontier models, 60 % of global AI investments, and the world’s densest network of talent and expertise. What is being built there today shapes European markets within 6–18 months.
This article highlights which convergences will be decisive in 2026, and what they mean concretely for the German Mittelstand.
1. AI: Disruption Comes from Combination, Not Invention
AI goes physical
Intelligence is leaving the screen and becoming embodied in robots that can perceive, learn, and adapt. These systems are deployed on factory floors, in warehouses, and in operating rooms. Machines that act autonomously in the physical world are increasingly entering every industry. Nvidia is already working with Agility Robotics (warehouses), Johnson & Johnson (surgery), and Figure AI (factories) on AI-driven robotic workforces. Experts predict that vertical robotics systems will start to appear explicitly in industrial budgets in 2026.
Agents take over workflows
By the end of 2026, 40 % of enterprise apps will feature task-specific AI agents (Gartner). AI agents collaborate autonomously, make decisions, and execute multi-step workflows. Conversation replaces search as the primary internet interface. Salesforce reports that AI-driven online purchases already generated $263 billion in revenue during the 2025 holiday season, accounting for 21 % of all orders.
Your next customer might be an AI agent, not a human.
Specialized expertise beats general-purpose AI
Specialized models trained on industry-specific data outperform general-purpose LLMs. Open source (DeepSeek, Qwen) is democratizing frontier AI: By 2026, more Silicon Valley apps will be built on Chinese open models.
Convergence as innovation booster
AI + biology = programmable living systems. Robotics + software = physical intelligence. Agents + commerce = algorithmic procurement. Technologies are no longer evolving independently but advancing together. Combination beats invention.
What this means for German industry:
🌟 Opportunities: Physical AI plays directly to the strengths of the German Mittelstand. Precision manufacturing, mechanical engineering, and automation technology will be elevated to the next generation through AI integration. When German companies train domain-specific AI models on decades of production data, they create competitive advantages that no one else can copy.
⚠️ Risks: If physical AI drastically lowers production costs in the US, German manufacturing locations will lose their cost advantage. At the same time, B2B sales is changing fundamentally: If AI agents research and preselect suppliers, traditional sales channels are no longer enough. Companies whose product specifications are not machine-readable simply will not show up in automated procurement processes.
📖 Further reading: MIT Tech Review: What's next for AI in 2026 | Axios: 2026 is AI's "show me the money" year
2. Mobility: The Car Becomes a Platform
Software defines the vehicle
Cars are evolving into AI platforms that learn and adapt. Software, sensors, and real-time optimization increasingly define a vehicle’s value, not just mechanics. Tesla has shown the way, and now the entire industry is following.
Partnerships win
The most successful mobility innovations are no longer created in isolated corporations but through cross-industry partnerships. Shared platforms accelerate innovation much faster than trying to build everything in-house.
Autonomy becomes real
The move from Level 2+ to Level 4 autonomy is shifting from R&D into concrete deployments. Waymo already offers autonomous rides in several US cities. The timelines for 2026–2030 are clear: Self-driving systems will become standard in urban mobility, on highways, and on defined logistics routes.
Sustainability = competitive edge
Electrification, solid-state batteries, and circular manufacturing are no longer just about compliance; they are becoming key differentiators. Those who invest today will win tomorrow’s contracts. Those who wait will face high catch-up costs.
Platform economy
Vehicles are transforming from transport devices into personalized ecosystems that monetize experiences, services, and continuous engagement.
Opportunities and risks for German industry:
🌟 Opportunities: German precision in mechanical components remains indispensable – but these components now need to be equipped with sensors, software interfaces, and data analytics. Those who combine mechanics + AI + data no longer deliver just hardware but intelligent systems. The real opportunity lies in cross-industry partnerships: OEM–tech–energy collaborations accelerate innovation faster than vertical integration. German suppliers that integrate into these platform ecosystems benefit from a platform economy where value comes not only from one-off sales but from continuous data and service relationships over the entire product lifetime.
⚠️ Risks: Software-first competitors like Tesla, BYD, and NIO have a structural advantage: They build vehicles from the ground up as software platforms and iterate in 9‑month cycles instead of 3‑year development cycles. Traditional suppliers that cannot keep up will lose business. In addition, autonomy-ready components require completely new development approaches: redundancy, real-time capability, over-the-air updates. Those who cannot meet these requirements will be excluded from future tenders.
📖 Further reading: FutureBridge Mobility 2026 | IAA Mobility Trends
3. Space: Space Becomes Industrial
Low Earth Orbit becomes a production site
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is shifting from experimental to operational: On-orbit manufacturing, bioreactors, and in-space servicing are turning space into part of the supply chain for manufacturing that is impossible on Earth.
Commercial competition intensifies
Amazon’s constellation will launch in 2026, challenging Starlink. Direct-to-device connectivity is becoming a mass market, but sovereign nations are demanding alternatives.
Space as national security
Commercial systems are competing with government infrastructure for communications, navigation, and Earth observation. US technology leadership meets China’s scale advantages in production.
Regulation lags behind
Mega-constellations are turning Earth orbit into contested space. Space debris is shifting from an abstract threat to a concrete operational risk. Yet binding rules for right of way, liability, and conflict resolution are still missing.
Opportunities and risks for German industry:
🌟 Opportunities: Commercial satellite constellations require thousands of satellites and therefore propulsion systems, radiation-hardened electronics, and solar cells. German precision and reliability enjoy an excellent reputation worldwide. At the same time, Earth observation data is booming for precision agriculture, logistics, and infrastructure monitoring. And Europe’s sovereignty ambitions are creating new market opportunities for “European-made, European-trusted” solutions, especially in security-critical applications.
⚠️ Risks: Dependence on a few global suppliers for critical components (radiation-hardened electronics, specialized propulsion) creates supply chain risks. If these suppliers fail or raise prices, there are few alternatives. On top of that, the lack of international rules means market conditions can change quickly. A new debris-mitigation mandate or changes in frequency allocations could render existing business models unprofitable overnight.
📖 Further reading: SpaceNews 2026 | IEEE Spectrum Engineering 2026
4. Robotics: Specialization Wins
Specialized robots prevail
Millions of specialized robots are deployed in industrial environments, powered by AI-based perception. Task-specific systems in controlled environments already deliver clear return on investment.
LLMs enable robotic intelligence (with limits)
Language models enable robots to understand instructions in context and plan tasks themselves. The challenge: To use robots safely in factories, AI decisions must be explainable and subject to strict safety boundaries. The real progress lies not in ever-larger models, but in mechanisms that make AI controllable and predictable.
Quantum computers accelerate robot design
Quantum computers are extremely well suited for materials science and physical simulations. They accelerate the development of better actuators, sensors, and mechanical systems that robots need for real dexterity in everyday environments.
Opportunities and risks for German industry:
🌟 Opportunities: Specialized robotics for manufacturing (welding, assembly, quality control), logistics (warehouse automation), and industrial services (maintenance, inspection) is the German sweet spot: precision mechanics combined with deep domain knowledge. Language models can augment existing systems with contextual understanding. The key advantage: German companies can train LLMs on their own precision and process data. A robot that has “learned” from decades of manufacturing experience is far more valuable than a generic system. Quantum computers also accelerate the development of better mechanical components.
⚠️ Risks: Many companies pursue humanoid robots because they attract media attention, but specialized systems are what deliver ROI today. Those who invest resources in the wrong direction miss real opportunities. In parallel, Chinese manufacturers can produce robotics components at prices that German precision manufacturing can hardly match. Without clear differentiation through domain expertise, price becomes the only competitive factor.
📖 Further reading: IFR: Top 5 global robotics trends 2026 | Robots & Startups: 2026 Predictions, competitions and CES
5. Climate Tech: Biology Becomes a Production Platform
Biology as a new manufacturing system
Genetically engineered microorganisms produce aviation fuel with more than 80% emissions reduction, capture CO₂, and create materials without mining. Biological foundation models make it possible to program organisms like software. Your next supplier may be a biotech lab, not a mining company.
Metamaterials revolutionize energy physics
Programmable materials enable room-temperature superconductors for lossless energy transmission. These materials adapt to their environment in real time and transform grid efficiency and energy storage.
Convergence
AI + biology is creating programmable living systems in which products are grown rather than built. The bioeconomy is emerging as biology becomes the most powerful production platform on Earth.
Opportunities and risks for German industry:
🌟 Opportunities: German strengths in chemistry and materials science combined with biological technologies lead to bio-manufactured materials. Metamaterials enable programmable products. Precision engineering meets adaptive, self-optimizing systems. The circular economy, traditionally a German strength, becomes a key differentiator.
⚠️ Risks: Biologically grown materials could replace traditional chemical processes faster than expected. Companies that fail to adapt their production methods will lose market share to biotech competitors. In addition, many firms lack the combination of biochemistry know-how and AI expertise. Without these capabilities, German companies cannot keep up in GenBio applications, even though they are leaders in traditional chemistry.
6. Health Tech: From Treatment to Design
The biological revolution
AI foundation models enable the programming of DNA, RNA, and proteins. Drug development, personalized medicine, and bio-manufacturing are becoming programmable biology.
Precision medicine scales
Gene-editing therapies, AI-designed organoids, and stem cell treatments are shifting healthcare from reactive to predictive. Wearables and biomarkers enable individually tailored treatments.
Regenerative medicine converges
Nanorobots deliver targeted drugs into the brain, lab-grown tissues are close to FDA approval, and living materials can repair themselves. Space-based research explores how organoids grow in microgravity to unlock new treatment options.
Opportunities and risks for German industry:
🌟 Opportunities: German MedTech strengths in diagnostics and medical devices, combined with AI and biological technologies, yield precision health systems. The pharma industry can accelerate drug development with AI. Regenerative medicine requires precision bioreactors, quality-control systems, and regulatory compliance – all areas where German companies excel. Positioning as a “trusted supplier” for biomedical production opens up new opportunities.
⚠️ Risks: Those who do not invest in AI-driven drug discovery and biological foundation models risk being overtaken by competitors that cut development times in half. The challenge: Regulatory processes in Germany and Europe are lengthy, while US companies reach the market faster. In addition, GDPR can constrain data-driven innovation that is essential for precision health. Companies must find a balance, or their products will be either too slow or non-compliant.
📖 Further reading: Biocompare: Predictions for the life sciences in 2026 | CNBC: OpenAI launches ChatGPT Health
What You Can Do Now
The six convergences make one thing clear: Technologies are no longer developing in isolation; they are developing into one another. For German companies, this means: Understand which convergences are relevant for your business – and how to leverage them.
Physical AI + precision manufacturing? GenBio + chemistry? Agentic AI + B2B sales?
Our Innovation programs provide structured access to Silicon Valley: no slide decks, but direct contact with companies that are already deploying these convergences productively. Through mentoring with Silicon Valley experts, companies develop not only an understanding of relevant technology combinations but also concrete solution approaches and the mindset to pilot them quickly.
The decisive advantage: What is happening in San Francisco today will shape European markets within 6–18 months. You see live deployments → you start your own informed pilots → your competitors are only beginning to understand what is happening → 12+ months head start.
Start small, learn fast
- Select one process (limited in scope, measurable, not business-critical).
- Run 3‑month pilots with clear learning goals.
- Aim: Practical experience with at least two convergence themes.
Map your ecosystem
- Which startups are already solving problems you face?
- Think cross-industry: automotive + tech + energy.
- Build partnerships across industry boundaries.
Learn more about the innovation programs and sign up for our monthly "Silicon Valley Insights" newsletter.
Further reading